Students Predict Human Rights Crises | Castleberry Peace Institute

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June 2, 2020

Students Predict Human Rights Crises

The Castleberry Peace Institute is very proud to present a selection of outstanding papers from Professor Meernik's class, Forecasting International Human Rights Crises in the spring semester of 2020. The goals each student had when writing these paper were to understand and predict the likelihood of a major human rights crisis in a particular country. The students were asked to analyze the probability that the governments in these countries, or perhaps a rebel army, might commit widespread and systematic violence against innocent civilians. The students were asked to provide a historical background for each country and a review of the underlying risk of a human rights crisis. The most important part of these papers is the student's analysis of the likelihood that current events, combined with a country's underlying risks and problems, could lead to a human rights crisis in which hundreds or perhaps thousands of people might be at risk of losing their lives. While the subject matter is troubling, the student's work on these papers is absolutely outstanding and helps us better understand the risks of violence in the world. We would hope that these insights might provide guidance in future crises to help avoid the loss of life. We thank you for reading and for any comments and questions about this Castleberry Peace Institute initiative.